The Mukesh Sahni-led Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) in Bihar, a constituent of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state, has been vocal against its senior ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of late, but the latter doesn’t see any threat to the government given the way the numbers stack up in the 243-member state assembly.

The VIP had fought 11 seats as part of NDA and won four in the 2020 state polls. The party currently has three members following the death of one of its MLAs, Musafir Paswan, who had won from Bochacha constituency.

Sahni, a former Bollywood set designer who himself lost the election, was elected to the Legislative Council in a bypoll and was later made animal husbandry minister in the Nitish Kumar government. His term in the upper house in set to expire in a few months.

Sahni has been sore with the BJP ever since the latter snubbed his offer of an alliance for the ongoing assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh and later for the 24 Legislative Council seats in Bihar scheduled to go to polls in March-April.

VIP has now announced to contest all 24 seats and chart an independent course for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a move that has stoked speculation of a political churning in Bihar post-UP elections.

The saffron party, however, seems unfazed, chiefly because all three incumbent VIP MLAs have BJP background. In fact, one of them, Raju Singh, MLA from Shahebganj, has been openly questioning Sahni’s leadership.

In July last year, Singh slammed Sahni for boycotting the NDA legislature meeting. “Sahni did not consult any of the four MLAs of VIP on his decision to boycott the meeting. The way he is taking decisions for the party is not right. He wants to dominate,” Singh had said.

Recently, he told a TV news channel, “If Sahni is feeling disregarded in NDA, I have no hesitation in saying that I am also feeling the same in VIP.”

Singh has been a BJP MLA in the past. “No doubt we are from the NDA background. I have been an MLA for 20 years. Many a time, I am not in tune with the party line. There is no question of leaving NDA,” he told HT on Saturday.

The other two VIP legislators — Mishri Lal Yadav (Alinagar) and Swarna Singh (Gaura Bauram) — also have a BJP background, though they refused to speak on record. Swarna Singh is daughter of a former BJP MLA and her father-in-law, who died last year, was an MLA from the same party.

Talking of numbers, the ruling NDA enjoys support of 127 members — BJP(74), JD-U (45), VIP (3), HAM-S (4) and one Independent — which is five more than the simple majority mark of 122.

The HAM-S, founded and led by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, has so far given no indication of rocking the boat.

The Opposition alliance has a total of 110 seats — RJD (75), Congress (19) and Left (16) — which is 12 short of the majority mark.

The Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM has five members and is not aligned with any alliance.

Given the numbers, BJP leaders say they are not bothered with VIP’s threat. “The NDA government is running with full unity. One or two aberrations in the alliance are always there,” said BJP spokesperson Prem Ranjan Patel.

On his part, Sahni has even dropped hints of switching sides, saying he would not mind working with leader of the opposition Tejashwi Prasad Yadav in the future.

“I have said earlier also that we will contest on all 24 Council seats. We are peeved by the step-motherly treatment given to alliance partners. Elections for the Lok Sabha are in 2024 and let us see what will happen then,” he told HT.

The minister, however, evaded a direct reply on his MLAs wanting to remain in NDA. “I am in NDA,” he said.

Experts too say Sahni’s threats are nothing but pure bargaining. “The real threat to NDA will be when AIMIM joins hands with VIP and HAM-S to support RJD-led alliance. Sahni’s Legislative Council term is also ending and BJP may not give him another chance and engineer defection of his MLAs,” said DM Diwakar, former director of AN Sinha Institute for Social Studies.